Why Lebanon won't make peace with Israel

(JNS) — Lebanese President Joseph Aoun declared on July 11, “Lebanon does not intend to pursue normalization with Israel,” though he left open the idea of “peace” as merely an absence of war. This ambiguous stance reflects Lebanon’s long-standing refusal to acknowledge Israel as a legitimate regional partner, despite shifting regional dynamics and significant recent Israeli military successes.

Since Israel’s founding in 1948, its relationship with Lebanon has been marred by conflict, including major wars in 1978, 1982 and 2006. While Israeli actions on Lebanese soil left scars, the far greater long-term damage has come from the unchecked presence of Hezbollah—an Iranian proxy embedded within Lebanon’s military, government and civil society. The group has fired more than 10,000 rockets into Israel, most recently following the Hamas-led terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and has provoked widespread devastation on both sides of the border.

Despite these provocations, Israel has acted with increasing precision. In July 2024, the Israel Defense Forces eliminated Fuad Shukr, the mastermind behind the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing that killed 241 U.S. servicemen. In September, “Operation Grim Reaper” wiped out 42 high-ranking Hezbollah commanders through coordinated detonation of thousands of beepers and walkie-talkies. Days later, Hezbollah’s elusive leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was eliminated in a targeted Israeli strike while asleep in his underground bunker in Beirut.

One might think such setbacks would lead Lebanon to reconsider its hostile posture toward Israel. Hezbollah’s dominance has been severely neutered by the IDF. Yet internal paralysis, ancient resentments, deeply entrenched feelings of national and ethnic identity, and a political system rooted in sectarianism render peace almost unthinkable.

Lebanon’s government is divided among 18 officially recognized religious sects. This confessionalist structure makes consensus rare and foreign-policy decisions nearly impossible. Moreover, Hezbollah, with its longtime allegiance to Iran, still holds disproportionate power within Lebanon’s government. Its raison d’être is Israel’s destruction, not coexistence.

Moreover, Lebanon continues to frame its national identity through the lens of anti-Israel “resistance,” clinging to unresolved issues like the Shebaa Farms dispute and the Palestinian refugee presence. While other Arab states, such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, have embraced normalization with Israel and the resulting benefits that come with it, Lebanon remains stuck in an outdated and self-defeating alignment.

Many Lebanese fear political or even violent repercussions if they openly advocate for peace with Israel. Lebanon’s internal political scene is inextricably linked to these larger historical wounds. Political parties and leaders often exploit external threats, especially those posed by Israel, to consolidate their power and legitimacy. Although significantly weakened, Hezbollah continues to position itself not only as a military force but as a protector of Lebanese sovereignty, making any move toward conciliation with Israel politically fraught.

In such an environment, the specter of normalization can easily be weaponized against rivals, with accusations of collaboration or weakness quickly surfacing in public discourse. Even moderate voices are wary of being branded traitors. This is not diplomacy; it is extortion by terror.

The worldwide community, particularly the United States, has an opportunity to push for change. But pressure must be applied strategically. As long as Hezbollah remains entrenched and a weakened Iran continues to fund terror, peace will remain elusive. Real progress will come only when Lebanon liberates itself from the grip of foreign-backed militancy and embraces the path of normalization—one that serves not only Israel’s security but Lebanon’s own chance at prosperity.

Until then, Israel must continue defending its citizens with strength, precision and resolve, while extending an open hand to any future Lebanese leadership courageous enough to choose peace over paralysis.

Sara N. Stern is the founder and president of the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET), a think tank that specializes in the Middle East.