Deciphering the multi-layered Trump and Netanyahu meeting at Mar-a-Lago

Part I

(JNS) - In a pre-New Year's meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump demonstrated that when it comes to U.S.-Israel relations, there is little daylight and total admiration between the two allies. This holds particularly true regarding the nations' policies toward Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, in particular. Key differences remain.

The meeting could not have come at a more important juncture for Israel. Phase 1 of a three-month-old ceasefire brokered by Washington, and based on key provisions proffered by Jerusalem, has proven itself to be a stunning initial success. That Phase 2 will prove to be as successful is less likely.

At the start of the ceasefire in October, all 20 remaining living Israeli hostages returned to Israel, one of its top war priorities. Nearly every dead body killed and taken by Hamas has been returned as well.

This removed the most valuable asset Hamas had as leverage. The hostages served as the ultimate human shields for the leaders of the terrorist organization and were the basis of psychological warfare against the Israeli population. Repatriating the hostages similarly removed the central pillar of the Israeli opposition's political campaign against the prime minister, and their own hedge that Netanyahu would fail to "bring them home."

Only the body of Israel Border Police Master Sgt. Ran Gvili, 24, remains in captivity. His family was on hand at Mar-a-Lago, demonstrating how important it is to both the president and the prime minister to recover the remains of the last of the 255 captives.

Hamas disarmament

After a partial IDF withdrawal with the signing of the ceasefire agreement, Israel remains in control of 53 percent of Gaza. Israel Defense Forces remain positioned in the entire eastern half of the Strip, plus large buffer zones along Gaza's entire northern and southern borders.

Most importantly, Hamas committed to fully disarm as part of the ceasefire, and the Palestinian enclave is to be demilitarized.

Before arriving in Florida, reports circulated with claims that Trump would push Israel to further withdraw from the half of Gaza it currently controls, even while Hamas clings to its weapons and remains in power over the residents. A withdrawal, the reports claimed, would facilitate the vision of Trump's son-in-law and former adviser Jared Kushner to rebuild Gaza as a modern, technologically advanced, terror-free, free-trade enclave.

Yet, Trump made clear in his remarks to the press following the meeting that, as part of the ceasefire agreement, Hamas had committed to disarming. And he insisted that they must disarm before any talk of further Israeli withdrawals.

As to the connection between Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawals, Trump stated: "Israel withdrawing its forces? Well, that's a separate subject we'll talk about."

Further, the president insisted that Israel has met all of its obligations as part of the ceasefire, negating claims by its detractors that it was violating the terms of the deal by striking at terrorists who attacked at IDF positions along a newly created Yellow (Israeli deployment) Line.

"I'm not concerned about anything that Israel's doing. I'm concerned about what other people are doing or maybe aren't doing, but I'm not concerned. They've lived up to the plan," Trump said, further emphasizing, "I know Israel's lived up to the plan 100 percent."

Timeline to renewed Gaza hostilities

It is likely there will be an agreed-upon timeline between Netanyahu and Trump for Hamas to comply with its obligations. After the end of that period, Israel will likely be given a greenlight to finish the job - this time without the threat that Hamas would kill hostages.

Recall that Trump gave Iran a timeline to negotiate a deal to resolve the looming nuclear enrichment crisis. Toward the end of the negotiation period, Trump intimated that Iran would have 60 days to reach an agreement. On day 61, Israel initiated "Operation Rising Lion, the opening salvo of what Trump later termed the 12-day war in mid-June.

And while Israel stands ready to finish the job and tackle Hamas, Trump remains hopeful that the IDF won't have to do more of the dirty work.

"We have 59 countries that signed on - big countries, countries that are outside of the Middle East," the president said. "They want to go in and wipe out Hamas. They don't need Israel; they want to do it because it's the right thing to do. Because they were for the deal, based on the fact that Hamas pledged, they swore that they were going to disarm. Now, if they're not going to disarm, those same countries will wipe out Hamas."

What countries will be involved remains to be seen. Israel has doubts as to whether nations like Qatar, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan want to see Hamas disarm.

It is believed that these countries supported Phase 1 of the ceasefire, particularly because it protected Hamas from imminent destruction by Israel. Phase 2, on the other hand, calls for Hamas's disarmament, which would eliminate their chances for survival.

Contrary to some media predictions, the Netanyahu-Trump meeting did not carry with it any announcements relating to the highly touted "Board of Peace" or the deployment of an "International Stability Force," as called for in the Trump 20-point ceasefire outline.

Gazan refugees

Since the beginning of the war, Gazans have been trapped inside the beleaguered Strip. Unlike any other war zone in the world, Gazans have not been afforded the basic humanitarian right of fleeing.

Meanwhile, a recent Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll showed that as many as half of Gazans would be willing to leave if allowed to do so. Back in February, Trump said following a meeting with Netanyahu that all Gazans should be resettled.

Asked by JNS why Gazans have not been afforded a right to leave, Trump replied, "I think the number today, half of Gaza would leave. I've always said it. I said, if you were given the opportunity to live in a better climate, they would move. They're there because they sort of have to be. I think it would be a great opportunity, but let's see if that opportunity presents itself."

At present, no countries in the world are willing to absorb Gazan residents for two reasons: The international community wants the Palestinians to be Israel's problem indefinitely, and countries across the globe fear that Gazan refugees-many affiliated with Hamas-will destabilize their societies. That speaks volumes about the oft-repeated mantras of "innocent Palestinians."

Will the Hezbollah ceasefire hold?

Hezbollah received less airtime in the president's remarks but was certainly one of the key issues discussed in the meeting. Asked whether Hezbollah was failing to meet the terms of a ceasefire agreement Israel signed with Lebanon, and in particular, on whether Hezbollah has failed to disarm, Trump responded that "Hezbollah has been behaving badly."

The president acknowledged that the Lebanese government would inherently have a difficult time forcefully disarming the terror organization that has wrecked their country.

"The Lebanese government is a little bit of a disadvantage, if you think of it with Hezbollah," Trump said. "So we'll see what happens."

What happens may likely be renewed large-scale military operations. Meanwhile, Israel continues a campaign of targeted strikes when it identifies terrorist and weapons movements, particularly in Southern Lebanon, as well as targeted assassinations against Hezbollah leadership.

A new frenemy in Syria?

Meanwhile, Trump has been trying to broker a formal defense agreement between Israel and Syria. Syria today poses a greatly reduced threat to Israel since the fall of its despotic president, Bashar Assad. With Assad's fall, Netanyahu struck quickly, ordering the IDF to take out the majority of Syria's military buildup in a period of days.

Since then, Trump has tried to stabilize Syria and bring it out of the orbits of Russia and Iran-and into the orbit of Saudi Arabia, and more importantly, the United States.

"We do have an understanding regarding Syria," Trump said, expressing his hope that Netanyahu will figure out the formula for working with the self-proclaimed new president of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Muhammed al-Jolani.

"I hope he's going to get along with Syria because the new president of Syria is working very hard to do a good job. He really is. I know he's a tough cookie, and you're not going to get a choir boy to lead Syria. So, I hope they're going to get along because I dropped the sanctions on Syria, because otherwise, they wouldn't have had a chance. We want to see Syria survive."

Netanyahu cautiously agreed. "Well, our interest is to have a peaceful border with Syria," he said. "We want to make sure that the border area right next to our border is safe."

The prime minister also emphasized protecting religious minorities in Syria and throughout the region. "We also want to secure our Druze friends," Netanyahu stated. "And by the way, I think not only the Druze, but other minorities, especially the Christians, should be protected as well in Syria and throughout the Middle East."

Round two with Iran?

Perhaps the most urgent security issue the two leaders discussed was Iran. Recent reports have indicated that Iran is in a race to rebuild its arsenal of ballistic missiles, as well as the launchers required to launch those missiles. The launchers are more complicated to build and create a bottleneck for the Islamic Republic. There are also reports that Iran is trying to reorganize its nearly obliterated nuclear program.

To counter the Iranian threat, Israel is feverishly working to replenish its significantly depleted arsenal of Arrow ballistic-missile interceptors, as well as American-produced THAAD missile interceptors.

Last week, Israel also announced that its technologically advanced Iron Beam laser missile interceptor is now online and operational. It is far more cost-effective to operate and never runs out-meaning, it never needs to be replenished.

That said, Israel would rather not test the efficiency of the Iron Beam system, preferring that Iran not rebuild the capacity to attack the Jewish state. It is clear that Trump similarly doesn't want to see Iran rearm.

Replying to a question from JNS, Trump said, "Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again. Then we are going to have to knock them down. We'll knock the hell out of them. But hopefully, that's not happening."

He later added that if Iran is "trying to build up again," America is "going to have no choice but very quickly to eradicate that buildup."

Yet there was something new about these comments worth noting. Trump is no longer referring only to the buildup of nuclear capacity. Asked whether he would support an Israeli attack on Iran if the Islamic Republic restarts production of ballistic missiles and nuclear enrichment, the answer was definitive.

"If they will continue with the missiles, yes. The nuclear, fast. OK. One will be yes, absolutely. The other one, we'll do it immediately."

"We know exactly where they're going, what they're doing. And I hope they're not doing it because we don't want to waste the fuel on a B-2," Trump said. "It's a 37-hour trip both ways. I don't want to waste a lot of fuel. OK?"

Trump prefers, as he did before the 12-day war, that Iran's leaders come to their senses and strike a verifiable deal to disarm. "I heard Iran wants to make a deal. If they want to make a deal, that's much smarter," he stated. "They could have made a deal the last time before we went through a big attack on them, and they decided not to make the deal. They wish they made that deal."

Back in July, there was a sense that had the 12-day war continued for even another week, the regime would have absorbed significant blows. But Trump's patience appeared to be running thin, especially after taking credit for ending the recent military conflict without toppling the regime.

Part II will discuss the Iranian regime, Iraq, Turkey and Qatar, Saudi normalization and the Palestinian Authority.